In five months, the law that blocked most non-Canadians from buying a home here stops applying. The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act expires January 1, 2027, and as of early August 2026 Ottawa hasn't announced an extension, a repeal, or a replacement.
That silence is doing a lot of work.
Buyers on work permits are asking whether to wait. Sellers are wondering if a new pool of demand shows up in January. Developers sitting on unsold inventory are openly lobbying to let it lapse.
Here's the part most of the coverage skips: the ban was never the expensive obstacle. The taxes were. And the taxes aren't going anywhere.
TL;DR: what expires, and what doesn't
The federal ban lapses on January 1, 2027 unless the government acts. Provincial and municipal foreign buyer taxes are separate laws and are unaffected. In Toronto, a non-resident buyer still faces a combined 35% in speculation tax on top of regular land transfer tax.
Two things follow from that table. A non-resident purchase in Toronto or Vancouver stays expensive. A non-resident purchase in Calgary or Edmonton was never taxed at all, and after January it's simply open.
What did the ban actually prohibit?
The Act, in force since January 1, 2023, barred non-Canadians from buying residential property with up to three dwelling units inside a Census Metropolitan Area or Census Agglomeration. The penalty is a fine of up to $10,000, and a court can order the property sold. Notably, a purchase made in breach doesn't void the title.
The carve-outs were wide enough that plenty of people bought anyway:
- Work permit holders with 183 or more days of validity remaining, who hadn't already bought under the prohibition.
- International students at a designated learning institution, with five years of filed tax returns, 244 days of presence per year, and a purchase price of $500,000 or less.
- Refugees and protected persons.
- Property outside a CMA or CA. Most cottage country, most small towns, and most rural land fell outside the ban entirely.
- Buildings with four or more units, and vacant land.
Permanent residents were never covered. Neither were Canadian citizens living abroad. A lot of the people who assumed the ban applied to them were exempt the whole time.
Is it definitely ending on January 1, 2027?
Probably, but treat that as a forecast rather than a fact.
The current expiry comes from a two-year extension Finance Canada announced on February 4, 2024. Since then the policy conversation has moved. Reporting through 2026, including a July 2026 analysis from BLG, indicates the government isn't planning another blanket extension and is looking instead at a targeted replacement. Housing Minister Gregor Robertson has pointed to the Australian model, where foreign buyers are barred from buying established dwellings but permitted to fund new construction.
Nothing has been tabled. Until something is, the operative default is that the ban lapses on January 1, 2027 and there is no federal restriction on who can buy a Canadian home.
What actually changes at your closing?
Less than people expect, and the change is mostly about paperwork disappearing rather than money.
Today, on a purchase by anyone who isn't a citizen or permanent resident, your lawyer is doing four things. Confirming your status through a signed statutory declaration. Checking whether the property sits inside a Census Metropolitan Area or Census Agglomeration, because that determines whether the ban even applies. Verifying any exemption you're relying on, which for a student means five years of tax filings and for a work permit holder means counting the days left on the permit. And confirming that the price fits the exemption, if a cap applies.
After January 1, 2027, if the Act simply lapses, that entire screen comes off the file for purchases that close in 2027 or later. Title insurers and lenders drop the corresponding conditions.
What does not come off the file:
- The NRST calculation. It's assessed at registration and your lawyer collects it in trust before closing. Getting the status question wrong here is a five or six figure error.
- Identity verification. Law Society rules require it regardless of citizenship, and it's the main defence against title fraud. We cover what that screen looks like in what your closing lawyer actually checks.
- Source of funds and FINTRAC reporting. International wires still get scrutinized, and they still take longer than domestic ones.
- Section 116 on the sell side. More on that below.
One timing point worth flagging. The Act applies to the purchase, not the closing. If you're a non-Canadian signing an agreement in late 2026 for a 2027 closing, the analysis is genuinely fact-specific and depends on when the purchase is treated as made. Do not assume a January closing date solves a December signature. Get advice before you sign.
What taxes still apply to a non-resident buyer?
This is the section that changes the math, and it's why "the ban is ending" is not the same news as "Canada is cheap for foreign buyers."
Ontario. The Non-Resident Speculation Tax is 25% of the purchase price, province-wide, and has been since October 25, 2022. It applies to land containing one to six single-family residences. Since March 27, 2024 it also captures condo parking and storage units bought with a unit. A rebate is available if the buyer becomes a permanent resident within four years.
Toronto. The city layered its own Municipal Non-Resident Speculation Tax of 10% on top, effective January 1, 2025. Combined with the provincial NRST, a foreign buyer in Toronto pays 35% in speculation tax before land transfer tax is even calculated.
British Columbia. The Additional Property Transfer Tax is 20% of the foreign buyer's share, in Metro Vancouver, the Capital, Fraser Valley, Central Okanagan and Nanaimo regional districts. On top of that, the Speculation and Vacancy Tax is an annual bill that just went up: 3% for foreign owners and satellite families in the 2026 tax year, rising to 4% in 2027. Canadians and permanent residents pay 1%.
Alberta. No foreign buyer tax, no provincial land transfer tax, and no speculation tax. Only the federal Foreign Ownership of Land Regulations apply, and those govern rural "controlled land" rather than anything inside city limits. This is the quiet story in the whole file. We compare the two provinces in detail in our Alberta versus Ontario closing guide.
Federal. The Underused Housing Tax is gone. Bill C-15 received royal assent on March 26, 2026, and no UHT is payable and no return is required for 2025 and later years. Obligations, penalties and interest for 2022 through 2024 still stand, so if you owned Canadian residential property as a non-resident in those years and never filed, that exposure hasn't been erased.
Worked example: a $900,000 Toronto condo
A foreign buyer purchasing a $900,000 condominium in Toronto in 2027, assuming the ban has lapsed and current tax rates hold:
The same buyer, same price, in Calgary: zero land transfer tax, zero speculation tax, and a few hundred dollars in Alberta Land Titles registration and mortgage fees. That's not a rounding difference. It's a different decision.
What could this mean for the market?
Here's where the honest answer is more useful than the exciting one. The evidence points to a small aggregate effect and a potentially meaningful one in a single narrow segment.
Foreign ownership was smaller than most people assume
Statistics Canada's Canadian Housing Statistics Program measured non-resident ownership at 2.2% of residential properties in Ontario and 3.1% in British Columbia as of the 2020 reference year, the last year with clearly published provincial percentages. Toronto CMA was 2.7%, Vancouver CMA 4.2%.
Those numbers describe the whole housing stock, which is why they feel low. The concentration is somewhere else.
The concentration was always in new condos
CMHC and CHSP data found condominium apartments with at least one non-resident owner ran to 10.4% in BC and 6.1% in Ontario, with Vancouver CMA at 11.2%. And for newly built stock the share climbed sharply: Vancouver condos completed in 2016 and 2017 showed 19.2% non-resident participation, against under 6% for buildings from 1961 to 1990.
That's the segment to watch. Not detached homes in Mississauga. Pre-construction and newly completed condos in Toronto and Vancouver.
The tax evidence suggests price effects are modest
We have a natural experiment. BC brought in its foreign buyer tax in August 2016 and Ontario followed in April 2017. Research from UBC Sauder found that after the BC tax, Vancouver neighbourhoods with above-median foreign buyer concentration saw prices fall roughly 6% more than lower-concentration areas. Real, measurable, and as the researchers themselves noted, nowhere near large enough to fix affordability. The effect also didn't show up in multifamily and condo prices.
The federal ban itself is a cleaner test. It ran from January 2023 through 2026, and Canadian home prices rose over 20% across that window. Whatever moved prices in those years, it wasn't the ban.
The market it lands in is the actual story
Reversing a restriction into a hot market and reversing it into this one are different events.
GTHA pre-construction condo sales in Q2 2026 came to 50 units, down 80% year over year, with no new project launches for a second straight quarter. Urbanation's Q1 report counted a record 4,295 completed and unsold units and a record gap between new and resale pricing. The development pipeline is down roughly 62% from its 2022 peak. In Vancouver, TD Economics forecasts a peak-to-trough condo price decline near 15% by mid-2027.
The mechanism that makes foreign capital matter here isn't demand for existing homes. It's construction financing. Developers generally need around 70% of a building pre-sold before a lender funds it, and the industry argues foreign buyers were roughly one in ten pre-sale purchasers. At current sales volumes, that share is the difference between a project penciling and not. That's the case developers are making, and it's why the loudest voices pushing for the lapse are builders rather than brokerages.
Three scenarios worth planning around
The ban simply lapses. Most likely near-term effect: a modest bid returns to pre-construction and completed-unsold condos in Toronto and Vancouver, where the discount is deepest and inventory is thickest. Resale detached housing barely notices. The 35% Toronto stack and 20% BC tax keep the effect capped. Alberta, with no equivalent tax, is where the change is largest in relative terms and smallest in absolute volume.
An Australian-style replacement. Foreign purchase allowed for new construction and vacant land, restricted for existing homes. This is the outcome that would most directly target the pre-sale financing problem, and it's the model reportedly under review.
A late extension. Still possible. Prices rose more than 20% during the ban, which makes it an easy policy to keep and a politically awkward one to drop. Anyone modelling a January 2027 purchase should carry this as a live risk.
What it probably won't do
It won't move affordability. A 2 to 4% ownership stock, taxed at 20 to 35% in the two markets that matter most, isn't the variable that sets Canadian house prices. Starts are running near 259,000 a year against an estimated need of 430,000 to 480,000. The gap is supply, and foreign capital only helps to the extent it gets shovels moving on buildings that otherwise stay on paper.
For a sense of how much this depends on scale, look at New Zealand. It relaxed its own foreign buyer ban in 2026 for golden-visa holders buying at NZ$5 million and up. An economist there estimated fewer than 0.5% of homes even clear that threshold. Design determines impact.
What about non-resident sellers?
Different rule, and it catches people constantly. The ban never applied to selling, and section 116 of the Income Tax Act has been there the whole time.
When a non-resident sells Canadian real property, they must notify the CRA within 10 days of the disposition and obtain a certificate of compliance. Until that certificate issues, the buyer is personally liable to remit 25% of the gross purchase price, rising to 50% for depreciable and certain other property. Note that's 25% of the price, not the gain.
In practice, buyer's counsel holds back that money in trust until the certificate arrives, which routinely takes months. Sellers who planned to use the proceeds for their next purchase find a quarter of the sale price frozen. If the ban's expiry brings more non-resident sellers into the market in 2027, expect more of these holdbacks and more closings where the seller is surprised.
If you're buying now, what should you do?
Don't wait for January without checking whether you're already exempt. Work permit holders with 183 or more days remaining, students meeting the tax filing and residency tests, and anyone buying outside a Census Metropolitan Area can likely buy today. A lot of people are waiting out a law that never applied to them.
Model the tax before the ban. Run the NRST or APTT number first. If it's 35% in Toronto, the ban's expiry is not what determines whether the deal works.
Watch the province, not just the country. The same purchase can carry a $343,950 tax bill in Toronto and effectively nothing in Calgary. Use our Ontario land transfer tax calculator and Alberta land titles fee calculator to see the difference on your numbers.
Get advice before you sign, not before you close. For agreements signed in late 2026 with 2027 closings, the timing analysis matters and it isn't obvious.
If you're buying or selling in Ontario, Alberta, or BC and citizenship or residency is part of your file, Deeded handles digital real estate closings across all three provinces and can connect you with a licensed real estate lawyer who has run these files before.
Frequently asked questions
When does Canada's foreign buyer ban end?
January 1, 2027. The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act expires on that date under the two-year extension announced in February 2024. As of August 2026 the federal government hasn't announced an extension, a repeal, or a replacement, so the default outcome is that it lapses.
Can a non-resident buy a house in Canada in 2027?
If the Act lapses as scheduled, yes, there would be no federal restriction. Provincial taxes still apply: 25% in Ontario plus 10% in Toronto, and 20% in five BC regional districts. Alberta has no foreign buyer tax at all.
Does the foreign buyer ban apply to permanent residents?
No. Permanent residents and Canadian citizens were never covered, including citizens living outside Canada. Many buyers who assumed the ban applied to them were exempt from the start.
Will the foreign buyer ban expiring lower or raise house prices?
The evidence points to a small aggregate effect. Non-residents owned roughly 2.2% of Ontario and 3.1% of BC residential properties as of 2020, and Canadian prices rose more than 20% while the ban was in force. The plausible exception is pre-construction and newly completed condos in Toronto and Vancouver, where non-resident participation historically ran much higher and where developers need pre-sales to secure construction financing.
Do I still pay the Non-Resident Speculation Tax after the ban ends?
Yes. The NRST is Ontario provincial law and is unaffected by the federal expiry. It's 25% province-wide, and Toronto adds a further 10% municipal tax. A rebate is available if you become a permanent resident within four years of closing.
Is there a foreign buyer tax in Alberta?
No. Alberta has no foreign buyer tax, no provincial land transfer tax, and no speculation tax. Only the federal Foreign Ownership of Land Regulations apply, and those restrict rural controlled land rather than property inside city, town, or village boundaries.
What happens if I bought while the ban was in force and shouldn't have?
The purchase itself remains valid and title isn't void. The penalty is a fine of up to $10,000, and a court can order the property sold on application by the Minister. Speak with a lawyer about your specific situation.
Do non-resident sellers need CRA clearance?
Yes, and this hasn't changed. Section 116 requires notice to the CRA within 10 days of the disposition. Without a certificate of compliance the buyer is liable to remit 25% of the gross purchase price, or 50% for certain property types, which is why buyer's counsel holds those funds in trust until the certificate issues.
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